RE: RE: RE: NSE IPO pulled db, the AGM was quite positive, since the review was announced there was no need for a confrontation. I spoke to the new Chairman, CEO and the Scotia bankers, they were all on board with the review; the Chairman expressed a high level of confidence that they will extract good value for our assets (he has done a good job with a similar review at Berens Energy in 2010); the Scotia representative believed that a deal would close in 2 to 3 months. The shareholders I spoke with were also supportive of the process.
Yes, I agree the company could have possibly gotten a better price for 50% of its Mississippian acreage, the silver lining here, Atlas is a very credible partner and Atlas itself may end up as a bidder for our all of our US assets.
I believe the company will get something in the vicinity of $6 a share for its assets, NGL pricing has taken a big hit lately, I believe this will weight on the valuation to some extent, at $6 I am pricing the following:
$85m for the Canadian assets
$18m for the reminder of the Mississippian
$255m for the Hunton
= $358m – ($148m) = $210m / 35 = $6
At $6 this would equate to 5.96 times 2012 Ebitda, when I spoke to the Scotia bankers they believed a deal just under 6 times Ebitda is a reasonable price to expect, of course if they were to use 2011 Ebitda we would get a much better price, but I think a deal around $6 is a reasonable price to expect.
Regards,
Nawar