RE: RED FLAGS I believe in the two conference calls that you referenced, Chad did address the issue of productions costs per tonne as best as he could. I don't think he was trying to be vague. As Capharnaum indicated, since Thruso is in big ramp up mode and not at full production, the issue of costs per tonne is very difficult to peg. The reference to "good days and bad days" was directed at the production rate at Thurso, not the DP price. On good days they surpassed their daily objective (200,000 tonnes divided by 365) and of course on bad days they did not. They only produced 25,000 tonnes in the 1st quarter and they lost $3.5 million in EBITDA so obviously they were not producing to the 50,000 tonne objective and obviously their cost per tonne was slightly higher then what they sold them for, in that quarter (that is how you lose $3.5 million EBITDA).
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I have no doubt that this is one of the issues the stock market is currently pre-occupied with. When Peter Vinall made the comment about having good production days and bad production days, he also added that he was fully confident in reaching the stated production rate (I believe by the end of this current quarter) and Chad later added that when that happens he is fully confident of reaching their stated cost per tonne objective. This the stock market seems to want to ignore.
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As for Landqart. After the 1st quarter conference call, Chad did a BNN interview and re-stated that he is fully confident in getting the delayed orders (as opposed to them being cancelled). He went on to state that he believes Landqart's biggest problem in the 2nd half of this year will be figuring out how to schedule all the business that he sees at Landqart, during that period. Obviously the stock market is also disregarding this.
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Who is right (Chad or the stock market) we will only know in about 3 to 6 months. I believe Dresden alone can justify the current share price, but again, it would be difficult to value Fortress Paper without the other moving parts. I wish there was more clarity as well, but there isn't.