CORRECTION - sorry about the calcuation on Eagle Deep. Assuming PRE exercises their right to take a 33% interest in the Corentune and / or Annex blocks this will leave CGX with 67% working interest, not 77%. Good catch waitingstill.
Also, as I understand it, the "earn-in agreement" will give PRE the right (at their discretion) to earn a 33% in the Corentyne and / or Annex block provided they fund 50% of the costs going forward. PRE can exercise this right irrespective of whether CGX moves forward with the private placement or not.
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RE-CAP OF PRIOR DEALS ALONG THE TRANS-ATLATNIC MARGIN:
Re-cap of Deal 1: Recently, Tullow bought out EO Group's 3.5% interest in the West Cape Three Points for roughly US $305 Million would suggest: a 1% interest in West Cape Three Points could be valued roughly at US $87 Million.
Re-cap of Deal 2:, the offer made by Ghana / Exxon to buy out Kosmos interest in the 30.875% West Cape Three Points Block and its 18% stake in Deepwater Tano Block for US $4-5 Billion (for the calculation we will use the average of $4.5 Billion) would suggest: a 1% interest of in either of these blocks could be valued at US $92 Million.
Re-cap of Deal 3 (did not go through):, the offer made by Total to buy out Wessex interest in the 1.25% French Guiana Block (Zaedyus) for US $114.5M. Rough calculations would suggest (excluding Wessex’s other assets): a 1% interest of in the French Guiana block could be valued at US $92 Million
** The above 3 deals seems to reflect a 1% interest in a typical Trans-Atlantic Block (post discovery) could be worth roughly US $90M.
TUDOR, PICKERING, AND HOLT CALCULATIONS:
Sept-09-2011: Tudor, Pickering, and Holt assigned numbers to Zaedyus – a 1,500mmboe sized discovery valued at US $6.2/boe; US $9.3B in total. Tullow's net (27.5% interest) is US $2.51B.
** The above Tudor, Pickering, and Holt calculation would seem to also indicate that a 1% interest in this block (post discovery) could be worth US $91.2 Million.
Now to apply Tudor, Pickering, and Holt’s logic to CGX’s Eagle Deep and Jaguar – post the May 28, 2012 deal with PRE where they obtain a 33% interest in the Corentyne and Annex blocks.
Jaguar: US $6.2/boe valuation based on a 1,200 mmboe prospect size. CGX's 25% interest in Jaguar would than equate to 300 mmboe * 6.2boe = US $1.86B, or approx. $5.41 per CGX share (assuming 344M shares outstanding).
Eagle Deep: US $6.2/boe valuation on a 2,500 mmboe prospect size. CGX's 67% interest in Eagle Deep would than equate to 1,675mmboe * 6.2boe = US $10.385B, or approx. $30.19 per CGX share (assuming 344M shares outstanding).
** The above would be based on CGX not moving forward with the private placement.