RE: Fair value now
Here is the post directly:
I posted last week that it would be an error to base the value of OYL on the fact that our share price hit below 30 cents. I stand by that comment even more now of course LOL! However, I think it is a worth while exercise to try and guesstimate what a fair value for the company is at this point. I posted last week that we should be somewhere between 60 cents and $1.20 but in light of how quickly we have risen, l think that may have been on the low side.
First, we need to guesstimate the odds of success at Jaguar. It is very easy to get excited lately with the share price rising and all the positive reports. For me, the biggest sign of the potential success at Jaguar is Repsol stating that things look good. I cannot imagine them saying this unless there was some good reasons for that. Add this to finding oil at Abary and ES (even though not ecoomical) and the government mobilizing and the rumors and share price rising and obviously we have pretty good chances. I choose to use 50% and this is very arbitrary. I welcome any other ideas here.
Based on 50% and 300M barrels of oil potential and a fully diluted share float of 450M shares, our share price for this only would be 300M barrels of oil times $4 per barrel times 50% chance divided by 450M shares or $1.33 per share.
Eagle Deep, assuming we find another partner that offers the same terms as PRE which seems possible as per Sully saying we had interested parties would give us a potential resource of 34% of 2.5B or 850M barrels. Our chances of success there change with the results of Jaguar but seismic data has been reported to offer a potentially better seal. At this very prelinary stage though, I think P20 is as high as we can go here. Still, even at P20 based on the same parameters as above, this would be worth $1.51.
Now, according to the company we seem to be finding other good leads at this point. These are very early in assessment and another Turonian target that seems to be present would certainly add to the potential value. Group all these other targets and give these a value of 16 cents per share and that brings a total fair value for OYL, today at $3.00 even!!!
The market is trying to steal our shares by playing games here IMO. Some people are already up 100% since the bottom and are probably thinking of cashing in...who would not with the market we have had lately?? However, arming ourselves with fair values, we will all be in a better position to decide what is a fair price where money can be taken off the table.
If we hit at Jaguar and Eagle-D, our fair value would be $10.21 for those two assets alone. The value of our other targets that I gave a value of 16 cents now would certainly be much more as well but impossible for me to evaluate.
Now, the problem is risk capital is more rare these days. That is why, even with a fair value of $3, the market will probably not give us anything above $1.50. However, AOI has proven that once a discovery is made, there is no shortage of investment grade capital for these derisked plays. That is why I think that once a discovery is made, taking money off the table early will be the wrong thing to do. Some here have worked way too long not to get the full pay out for their patience.
I may have showed up late to the party here, but I am as committed to seeing this thru as any of you because the potential here is just too HUGE!