Let the market give us the odds To be fool or a genius will have to be decided by the markets not by yourselves.
The last post by 1320racing is very well thought out and I agree with him 100 % on the scenarios he suggested..........IF there is a deal to be made.
The July GEA report has already been proclaimed by CS to be positive and priced into the stock by the market. For example, if it were to be negative...no loan no deal no company ..zero.
So we have an assumed positive GEA report in July and the only question then is as 1320 racing so aptly stated ......What kind of a deal will ?
Even with a positive GEA will the food market yawn as say "so what we are not interested any how" especially if the global macro factors are bearish such as world markets recession etc etc .
So what are the risks with BioExx and the % in a more scientific manner of calculation. Let us look at the what market says.
Last June 2011 when the sp was $ 1.77 there was sudden drop to a $ 1.00 PP orchestrated by Canaccord to give BioEXx the last 20 million dollars for 20 million shares.
Let us agree that at that time with the known market knowledge of BXI it justified that 20 million cold hard cash to value BXI at $ 1.00 for success.
This year exactly 12 months later the sp is 8.5 cents even after a heavy dump by larges holders at the end of May.
The Market priced it $ 1.00 for success last year and 8.5 cents this year.
The market represents all the investors and all that can be known about BXI at this time.
Therefore about 92 % chance for success and 8 % chance for failure and that is about where Cliff had it pegged at.