RE: RE: RE: Pulverizer RE: Nat Gas - my comments are regarding my own trading. I gave up trying to make 5% here, 15% there all the time. I ended up selling loosing stocks too much chasing technical indicators only to sell at a loss and later watch that stock soar.
When I coin Nat Gas as a 3 - 4yr play that's based on the LNG Pipeline being built in BC and the fact that Nat Gas is so depressed as it is. If Nat Gas itself goes up 40% that doesn't necessarily mean the stocks I am holding in it will go up 40%. I am actually down 40% on one Nat Gas play and another 17% on another. So the one I am down 40% on, I am willing to just ride it out for years if I have to. I no longer am willing to sell loosing positions based on so called technicals. I will only sell a loosing position if the company had something seriously fundamentally go wrong and there is no hope in ever recovering. But these stocks that move in a sort of seasonality will not shake me off on a loss if the fundamentals remain the same. DEE right now is my main loosing Nat Gas play at a -40%. It has a new 12 month target of basically where I bought it, which at the time had a 12 month target of about 70% higher than the new target.... That play will be a multi-year hold for sure and that is fine with me.
As for PPY.A - probably not as long of a recovery time, but then who really knows? Fracing has introduced a higher than normal inventory for Nat Gas and it seems companies won't stop mining it. Until we can move more infrastructure into Nat Gas such as power plants and export hubs, Nat Gas will continue to be extremely volitile with not much luck of going above $3.
I am waiting for infrastructure upgrades and therefore any positions I would accumulate to date in the Nat Gas I would be holding for those positions. Sure, I could try and chase a 20% gain (though on a side note it seems everytime I buy a stock it drops at least 20% before it rebounds) but I'd rather find Nat Gas plays that have the ability to be part of these infrastructure upgrades and hopefully get the 100-300% gains.
That's 3 to 4 years for sure.