Thoughts As far as I can tell, none of the hypotheses presented fit reality.
For example, anything involving speculation about the IMC deal falling through is inconsistent with every bit of evidence that has accumulated about the nature of this deal. Inconsistent doesn't mean impossible, just extremely unlikely. Especially since Nick confirmed that this has nothing to do with the IMC deal.
I don't know what's happening (who ever really does?), but at worst, I'm seeing a hit of around 25% of my projected return on this investment. That would be disappointing, if my expected returns weren't what they are. That worst case scenario is full dilution, reducing cashflows per share. But even here, I would be sad, but I have no reason to expect that it means anything other than Brian Wesson thought the cash on hand was important enough to secure this deal. I have no reason to doubt his talents, so why would I?
However, full dilution is a worst case scenario. In my experience, things are rarely a worst case scenario when all is said and done.
I'm not thrilled about this, but I'm more than happy to see where this goes. After all, I'm impressed enough by what this management team has done up to now to have invested in it to begin with (otherwise, why would we give our money to strangers?)
In fact, if I really think about it, and crunch some numbers, I can see ways in which this could make me richer. Things are rarely best case scenarios (it works both ways), but I see a lot of potential here, too.
It's not the time to panic. It's the time to think, watch, and try to come up with explanations for what this could be.
GL everyone. I hope anyone who abandons ship can find a life raft. And if the ship doesn't sink after all, I hope you manage to get back on board.