RE: Fun with numbers For some reason management has always been aggressive with the production forecasts to start each year and for the past several years they have always either missed or revised the figure downwards. The ironic thing is they always issued a PR during the spring or fall period where they state a "current production" number that is well above average production for the quarter, but obviously they must be picking a favourable time to do so before it drops off or they cut off over production.
So I would probably lay the blame for the decimation in shareholder value solely on management. If they were more upfront or honest about their expectations instead of merely pulling imaginary numbers from their dreams then maybe the shares would not have been overbid in price for those various moments. The sell off from the revisions downwards have always been brutal. But this time they have cornered themselves into a bad situation because now they have racked up the debt and have an unfavourable D/CF ratio that is likely higher than anytime in the past several years and also facing an oil market that has suddenly reversed directions and a stock market that is falling leaving future financing with unfavourable terms.