RE: $10 2P IS Realistic! - BALONEY! Your "facts" remind me of the saying, "figures don't lie, but liars can sure figure"
You picked the wrong company to compare. I own a ton of INA (my third largest position) - and know exactly what they bought. INA paid $10.70 for 2P bbls, all right. But why so expensive? Perhaps it was that little thing like the just-completed production and sidetrack wells that cost in the $50+MM range? (ie something that Tom Shot Bank still requires - ie, the majority of the $6.70 bbl for "historical development costs" INA mentioned). And INA are buying a field that is so far advanced that FDP is imminent and that the offtake platform modifications are already being prepared for Sept/Oct? And of course, NS has the same political risk as Nigeria. They are often reports of kidnapping in the UKNS - and pipelines being blown up - and rampant theft of oil from illegal pipeline taps. Oh, sorry, that's Nigeria...
But for laughs, let's ignore the political risk issues and subsequent discount that implies. Does Mira have a production well to sell? Nope. Do they even have reserves? NO. Do they have reliable flow tests? Not yet. FDP? Pluheeze! Yet you say Mira would be able to sell their reserves/resources for $10 bbl, even when the facts show Nigerian operators (like Afren) buy nearby offshore 2P for less than $2 bbl? Oh my. Roll eyes now...
For more "facts", INA recently exercised their option to buy 9.7MM 2P bbls in the West Wick field. What do you think they are paying for 2P reserves? $10? $8? $6? $4? $2? If you guessed any of the above, you'd be wrong. They are paying ~
.80 bbl for a field that already has an approved FDP...
"Under the terms of the sale and purchase agreement, Iona paid to Centrica a holding deposit of $3.15-million (U.S.) and, on completion, will pay to VPC a sum of $5-million (U.S.). GCA has estimated net proved oil reserves of 5.1 million barrels, net proved-plus-probable oil reserves of 9.71 million barrels and net proved-plus-probable-plus-possible oil reserves of 12.18 million barrels."
Those 9.7MM 2P have NPV10 pre-tax of $382MM as at Dec 31, 2011...and are being bought for $8.15MM.
But Mira will sell for $10 bbl? And the dog ate my homework, and the check is in the mail...