LoL - Where's the bottom? I can't help but laugh. In the 4yrs I have been "trading" I have lost more than earned and this one I am down 56% now. Not selling. I'll ride it to the end, whatever. It's only confirming to me that we have farther to go in this share price as well as the price of WTI. You think by August we'll see $64 WTI?
For the remarks on the American politics. QE3 I do not believe will happen at all in 2012. The fact that some think it will is somewhat nieve. First of all the economy isn't great, but it's no where near 2008/2009. The ONLY way QE3 would get initiated is if Europe fully unravels, Spain, Italy, Greece all pull out together and massive banks over there go bankrupt. With all the drama and speculation on what is going to happen and what won't, the reality is the Europeans have 2008/2009 as a reference point, and I really don't see them allowing themselves to self destruct. SO - that said, unless they do self destruct QE3 is a no go.
Oil prices will remain low in 2012. It helps Obama sure, but his administration alone cannot control the price. He has a few tools to help manage price but he can't control it entirely. Canadian stocks are in the Oil sector are being destroyed based on pipeline issues for one. The claim is that there is nowhere to sell the oil without added pipelines and with the drama for the 2 main pipeline proposals on hold, this is investor's way of being screaming children. Not to mention Canadian oil firms receive far less than WTI pricing.
But we all know that the Saudi's prefer $100 a barrel. We all know that there are firms in Canada that cannot sustain production for less than $60 a barrel. So speculators can push oil to $40 a barrel if they like but that'll just shake the tree and shoot these stocks right back up.
I'm holding tight. I have 33% cash in my account and I am waiting. Until I see Oil bottoming I won't average down anything and I won't add any new positions. I believe as volumes get lighter through the summer, that the best opportunities will be in Aug/Sept to start averaging down and opening new positions. I think we'll see low 70s and potentially 60s by then. But that's my best novice guess.
And finally - if anyone is in Gold. Gold will be stale all 2012. People think you need QE3 to boost gold. To some degree that is correct if we're talking about send Gold up $500oz+ but Gold soared for a decade without QE3, it soared during a bull market and then it soared even faster during a bear market. In time it will return to it's bullish ways but not without mass confusion as Gold too has production levels that would shake out many small firms as some smaller firms with low grade gold deposits see production costs from $700 to $1200 per oz....
To succeed in these markets we need: 1) Patients. Quit trying to buy a stock today to double by next month. That rarely happens and when people get impatient they sell out of a falling position and miss it's huge turn around. 2) you want to buy when things are falling hard and fast. You want to buy when the TV is pounding the doom drum. You want to buy when confidence is an all time low because if you've done your due dilligence, you'd know that stocks are over-sold, summer is typically low volume and high volitility, and eventually funds and retail investors will start buying stocks again as their 1% treasury bonds are boring.
I find it amusing when I watch other boards and people buy into rally's. That's exactly how we get burned because you end up being the investor that got in at the top. You want to buy into doom scenerios and you want to sell into rally's. Do the opposite of the TV and be willing to wait 1, 2, even 4 years if you have to on a position and you'll do much better than trying to keep up with day traders.
my two cents.