RE: Resource Assessment K, I'm also pleased with the news, and it seems it has been worth waiting for...
It's not until we have the report from SLB that we will be able to tell what what part of the stooip that is recoverable, but I would expect something in the range of 25% is reasonable on primary. When looking at the presentation from Jan om Mira's homepage, it looks like U7 was expected to have about half the pay, and the rest in U4,8 and 9, so I don't think it is unreasonable to think that the whole TSB structure has something closer to 50 Mbbl recoverable, or half to MRP (which is close to the number I threw out back in November)
As for valuation, given the fact that this is a 'marginal field' which has tax benefits, somewhere between 10 and 15 USD/bbl will probably be the NAV, which is not the same as what someone would pay... If we get let's say 5 USD per 2P we're looking at 100 x 25% x 48% x 5 = 60 MUSD. Throw in another 2 USD/bbl for the contingent and the prospective on let's say another 100 Mbbl gross risked stooip and you might get an offer somewhere between 60-80 MUSD or 45-60 c per share. It all depends on the quality of the assets and the upsides (which is hard to judge from the outside) and the competition and which players are interested and their possible synergies in developing the field.
Next step now is for First to set up a good data room and try to sell the story and the upsides, the risk I see is if the competition is limited, then someone will try to steal it, and given the current share price MRP has limited opportunities to finance the next well, let alone a field development via share sales. The best for all parties would be an outright sale, the asset is too small to share in a farm-down.
I would think the neighbours are likely suitors like Moni Pulo and Addax.
if I get 50c I'd be pretty happy since I bought most of my shares in the 12-20 range.
best,
darcy