RE: THOUGHTS - AWAIT CLARIFICATIONS Oil Run:
You have made a very good and cogent argument regarding why they have not released more information regarding the magnitude of the light oil finds. If these results were poor and non-commercial one would expect that they would be under a duty of care to relate that information immediately. Perhaps I am a blind optimist but to my way of thinking it points to the fact that this may be a commercial find. While one could maintain that if this were true they would be under a duty of care to relate that information as well, that argument is not quite correct. This is because other events namely the expiration of the rights to the Georgetown block can be viewed as a superseding event which may materially alter the duty to report a possible commercial find. It is potentially a perverse situation in that reporting such a find might adversely affect the rights of shareholders at this particular point in time. I believe their is a lot of case law on this subject which supports the contention that they are completely justified in keeping mum on the subject until the results of the negotiations over the rights to the block are concluded. I also believe we should be thinking more along the lines that finding more oil at greater depth may simply be a future possible bonus. In other words concentrate on the two birds in your hand not the big potential albatross in the bush.
I suspect that we are going to see a huge rebound in the SP over the next week while this possibility slowly filters down through investors thought processes and pressure is brought to bear on the operators to release more information. They will probably only do so once they have renegotiated the concession rights, but which may not take nearly as long as many might think.
I will be throwing everything I can into this play in what I perceive is a reasonable gamble that they have hit much bigger than many are presently thinking. If such analysis is correct then the next week or two will almost certainly be the last chance to get in cheap before the real & solid appreciation starts. Just imagine how cheap 30 cents might look within a couple of months, if once they tie up the concession rights, they come out with some really positive concrete information regarding these light oil finds.