RE: RE: Drought: The bad and the good You both make good points. Management went out with an aggressive forecast, and I think being too aggressive in the past has been a factor in the subdued share price. The company is doing well and is on a solid growth trajectory regardless of how Q2 and Q3 shape up. BUT, management keeps "over promissing" and as such keeps missing expectations (hence the credibility problem SK mentioned on the last call). Not sure why management hasn't learned that under promssing and over delivering usually gets better results. Yet here we are with a company that is profitable and has seen a surge in business activity yet the share price languishes and many analysts are losing interest. Fortunately buy side shops seem to be picking up significant interest. Also someone is out there supporting the price at .75 cents recently. Not huge volume but total orders have been around 300K and I susepect its the same buyer. Every time the voume at 75 cents gets eaten up a new bid comes in.
Weather related events are VERY tough to predict and we can only surmise an outcome based on what we see and understand today, however we must bear in mind that things could change very quickly. As jtrudeau said, there is a tipping point. We aren't there yet but we are damned close. I know that predicting HEM's business is tough, and frankly I can get why management has a tough time of it. There is simply very limited visibility on a quarterly basis for this type of company, but the long term trends are much easier to forecast. The problem again though is being aggressive on forecasts and not delivering is a recipe for poor share price performance. Net net though this company remains one of the best values I've seen and growth is substantial. I just want to see some catalysts to turn the share price around, and based on my experience this is generally driven by i) outperforming expectations consistently, ii) M&A events, iii) positive macro/industry trends which fuel multiple expansion.