drilling I've been going over the previous updates on Shabeel-1 and through some rough back-of-the-envelope math I have an estimate on the drilling of Shabeel-North.
Spudded June 5th, planned depth 2400 m
say they encounter same regional seal of Tertiary limestone from 0m to 1600m. On shabeel-1 they drilled 32.37m/day up to depth of 1,230m then 63.3m/day up to a depth of 2,053m. This is including casing time.
1,230-50 (pilot depth)= 1180/32.37= 36.45
1600-1180=420/63.3= 6.6
36.45+6.6= ~43 days.
June 5 + 43 days = an approx date of July 18th, 2012. So I believe at July 18th we will have drilled to 1600m and will start to enter potential oil bearing formations. I won't write out the calculations again but to drill to the TD of 2400m I think it will take a total of 63 days from June 5 which lands us on Aug 7th to reach TD. I believe any time between the dates of July 18th and Aug 7th we will get an update. I know its quite a spread but just my 2 cents.
If you want to discount the time by say 10% thinking they can drill quicker they could reach TD by Aug 1st.