time to reallocate... DTX 67 million shares o/s
PRY 259 million shares o/s
DTX…WAY MORE boe/d…
..
some neighbourly luv………………
DTX,,,,thanks to Sculpin….new report out today…
* now you tell me….does this Macquarie report sound familiar? The mark of a really good researcher and scribe is self-evident when what he reveals is confirmed by others imo.
* remember this includes just the bakken acreage and not the Belly River Group at Brazeau as well.
OJ
400 million reasons to go long
Event
In this report, we take a quick look at DeeThree’s 2012 AB Bakken drilling results as well as highlight upcoming catalysts for the company.
Impact
Positive. Preliminary results from the company’s 2012 AB Bakken program appear to be top-tier. Its four wells with production data have generated peak 1-month production rates ranging between 253–345bbl/d on a calendar day basis. These results compare favourably to the average calendar day peak rates along the AB Bakken trend of only 103bbl/d.
Over 400mmbbl in-place potential? We estimate that the company holds ~40 net AB Bakken prospective sections in the greater Ferguson area based on conversations with management. With an estimated 10–12mmbbl DOIIP per section, DeeThree could be on the verge of a material light oil discovery at over 400mmbbl DOIIP. We believe these lands could be worth ~C$3.89/share risked or nearly C$5.35/share unrisked (PV10AT, flat pricing).
Upcoming catalysts. DeeThree has three near-term catalysts, in our view: 1) the company has ~7 gross horizontal wells (four AB Bakken/three Belly River) that will be tied-in through July/August that could push corporate production to well over 5,000boe/d by August (vs YE guidance of 5,000boe/d). 2) Considering no eastern AB Bakken horizontal wells were booked as part of its 2011 year-end reserve report, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a mid-year reserve or contingent resource report being issued. 3) We expect DeeThree to announce a larger land position at Ferguson as a result of participating in recent land sales.
Earnings and target price revision
No change.
Price catalyst
12-month price target: C$6.00 based on a 7.5x 2012 EV/DACF methodology.
Catalyst: Updated reserve report; results from its AB Bakken or Belly River horizontal wells
Action and recommendation
DeeThree is among the few producers in our universe with visible near-term catalysts that certainly could support the stock over the next few months, in our view. As we mentioned previously, we continue to believe that the company is a prime take-out candidate. We reiterate our Outperform rating and C$6.00 target.
from the man himself...
"
DTX
* I have said enough....see the Macquarie and Schaeffer OJ copy-cat notes for confirmation.....too funny.
* I would expect that if the current price of oil can be maintained that we see a news release from the company in the next week or two.....and that we best 5,000 bpd and we could see 2012E exit guidance raised to 6,000 bpd+.
* the company could then raise a little more money and then set a more aggressive 2013 drilling campaign in which they concentrate of development drilling at Brazeau and Ferguson. Two 400 mmbo OIIP light oil pools and very low drilling and completion costs in both as compared to the competition and one of a few companies to actually continuously best production guidance and drilling expectations.
* all with a share count of under 70 mm as well.
* does not get much better than that. Next two Ferguson Banff (Bakken) development wells are going into the most productive portion of the fairway."
more..
Re: DTX on the up, but... ;)
Oiljack:
Thanks as always for your advance heads-up compared with those who "also-ran".
Your scenario going forward is good as far as it goes, but the imponderable is whether DTX makes it onto the radar screen of those with deep pockets and "hasta la vista baby". Sometimes something flying under the radar screen eventually gets detected. Once that happens, usually all hell breaks loose.
jwall
Re: DTX on the up, but... ;)
* have blabbed enough for now....wait until the next set of posts come your way....you will think $4 looked really cheap.
* think of this post (not you Jwall) of what you may....you know how accurate the last ones were when the talking heads confirmed them with their own scribblings.
OJ