RE: Bioniche Valuation No one's post gets burried here quicker by krap than Beeches... so time to raise the cream to the surface again. Thanks Beech for highlighting the true potentials.
__________________________
We all know that .68 / share is a travesty, for all we have on the go. But what should we be trading at? When you factor in future revenue.... a lot. I would say zero is factored in right now. Pretty sad really, but great opportunity to get in to this stock cheap.
Let's break it down into 4 products. They have so many more that I won't get into.
Let's start with Immunocidin as it is fresh off US and CDN approvals 2 weeks ago.
1 in 4 dogs get some form of cancer. 4.3mm incidences of canine cancer annually. Immunocidin is a groundbreaking technology with virtually no side effects, that not only kills cancer cells but stabilizes platelets and white blood cell counts within 24 to 48 hours of single dose treatment. With a big pharma partner (lets say Bayer as they already have a partnership agreement with them) you can safely say they will get (worst case) 2.5% market share(107,500) at a $2,000 price point (well below chemo prices and infintely safer and more effective). That's 215mm in revenue. Bayer would take 50% lets assume, so $107,500,000 to Bioniche. Lets put on a reasonable 7 revenue multiple and we have $7.50 share price for Immunocidin alone. Immunocidin can be administered by a lab tech. Chemo can only be administered by a qualified Canine Oncologist. (there are only 4 in the entire Golden Horseshoe) So 2.5% may be a little light for mans best friend.
Urocidin - we are well into our 2nd phase 3 trial for the 5th most common cancer in men and the most expensive cancer per patient of them all. Bladder cancer. 80,000 new BC patients a year in NA. another 70,000 in the EU. 80% are NMIBC (non muscle invasive bladder cancer) The only real firstline treatment is BCG (some patients are given chemo and or BCG). 45% are refractory (does not work) or cannot complete a full cycle of BCG. Next recommended treatment for these patients is Cystectomy (bladder removal) That gives us 54k new cases annually. At a paltry 25% penetration 13,500k at $30,000 per treatment. Gives us $405,000,000 in revenue to Endo and BNC. Assuming BNC has a 25% transfer fee (plus manufacturing) gives us another $125,000,000 give or take. Thats with no off label use. Ask any Oncologist or Urologist if they will administer BCG with its live pathogens, and you will see the off label potential. 7 multiple and you have $8.75 for Urocidin.
Econiche and our 60mm state of the art vaccine plant. (funded by the provincial and federal governments) A lot of us think the first place that wil adopt our technology is Australia. Two of our big shareholders are Jack Cowin (largest burger king franchiser in the world- over 700 stores) and he distributes beef all over Asia and Carl Lieberman One of Australia's richest men. They have over 30mm cattle. If we got 25% of the market there, that would be 7.5mm cattle (the full course treatment is around $12 per head). That would be another $90,000,000 in revenue. 7 multiple is $6.30 stock.The CEO also says a worldwide partnership with a big pharma is close at hand. If it is US pharma, that may open the door for USDA approval, which i won't even get into. It also looks like we are gaining some traction in Canada with a potential subsidy as well.
Lastly the Urocidin and Immunocidin trials have led to a very interesting discovery. "Clinical studies show that a single dose of the second product following chemotherapy treatment in healthy dogs restores the number of white blood cells in the dog to normal levels within 24 to 48 hours with few side effects."This has enormous market potential. Virtually every single cancer patient gets either Chemotherapy or surgery and Chemotherapy as a treatment worldwide. They should be starting post Chemo canine trials shortly and human trials not long after that. The market size for that is almost unfathomable. Tens of billions of dollars. it is a ways off, but Endo will want to be a part of that (along with every single other pharma)
This is the gift of all gifts at these levels. Zep is right nobody has this kind of irons in the fire and the potential for enormous revenue that we do. My only hope is that someone doesn't figure it out and buy us out before that can come to fruition. I am convinced Endo will buy out our human division within the next 6 months. They owe us 94m in milestone payments for Urocidin still, so it is attractive for them to buy us out.
This company has so much on the go and with a new Chairman of the Board (James Rae) with huge experience in takeovers and delivering results, we are on our way. We either get bought out for 6 or 7 times our current SP, or in a few months to a few years, we hit the motherlode. According to the calculations above, around $25 a share. Many on this board will be multi millionaires when that happens. Hope you guys are one of them. GLTA.
beech