RE: RE: NGas 2.75 bottom imo. If timing is off contango is not an issue in the short term.
lets be real, demand has been the only factor that has helped the fundamentals. Some say that demand would disappear at higher prices, they are correct only on a smaller percentage. Keep in mind the utilities, which have helped with the demand with the coal switching and weather, have locked in on prices to a certain degree... the curve helped with that over the last few months.
so ya I don't think, and now alot of people that look at the macro picture, think ng will hit the 4.1tcf storage limit now. So if you come up with 3.8,3.9 or even 4.0tcf end result and you look at last years prices when storage finished peak at 3.84 tcf then prices say 3.75-4.00... but it's not always that easy.
thats only one part of the equation. production has been relatively flat ytd.. the main reason that got natty into this mess, the mild winter didn't help to pick up the slack. we all know the rig count has come down alot... so if and when the lag effect of production starts to drop... look out. high demand then add a tightening of supply....if your short you may never, EVER, see these prices again if production starts to comes down.
That's not an opinion.
I