buy D if you want to risk living on a park bench... imo. Not to say D won't make one any money, don't like the risk vs. reward...but looking at the weather for aug. it's similiar to july, maybe a tinge cooler. So if we assume 30bcf injections, including last week, then by the end of aug. were talking inventory will be approx. +260 over last yr.
Then you look at the huge injections from last year from septt/oct and not hard to phathom that inventory vs. last year will be cut signifciantly more. Add production decreases.. and voila...if your short you could be living on a park bench with a couple of the crazies here.
I think natgas will go against historical moves this fall.. you would think there's got to be some production effect that kicks in from a 40% decline in rigs eventually.... With decreased drilling, you can't just make up for any short fall asap in production ... depending on the decline rates of the current wells. This is kind of a grey area, with the offshoots from oil, liquids, etc... but still if you assume the offshoots stay stable from today, productiion should decline...?
hnu is the trade imo, perhaps at a lower point, maybe, maybe not,.yep it can go lower, but limited imo. D is way too risky here, (and I was recently a D guy).. no sense givin how things look to be shaping up. To me either you play hnu or you sit on your hands.... not to say you can't scalp some D trades.. but no sense with the risk to the upside in natty...
My opinion.. if you don't agree please back it up with some reasons.. and not just becuase..lol. Always open to a good civil debate.
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