re Fabrice and the outlook here I was interested to hear Fabrice's latest BNN comments.
Negatives:
- Fabrice believes that oil will be weakening, as the world demand will shrink. He is negative on all Oil and commodity plays it seems.
- Pulverizer's is concerned over RPL not having cleared trend line resistance at 50 day EMA - a valid point of view from a technical standpoint. Although I don't place much magic in 50 or 200 day ema's, RPL has been so far, unable to break that trend.
- Pulverizer suggests that RPL may not have a great quarter to share - I can buy that.
- Macro European risk in general, China slowing, Greece leaving etc etc etc
Positives:
- Typical election year seasonality strength - Obama will pull out all the stops to put lipstick on the pig.
- The considerable possibility that we will see new stimulus early September, (this has been a large part of the latest low volume 3 day summer rally)
- Remote Possiblity that before the election, Iran war explodes (good for oil stocks in general)
- The normal Wall of Worry we are experiencing after a modest runup- massive cash on sidelines
- And the fact that Fabrice is a small minority in his negative analysis of RPL
. . . . leaves me modestly leaning towards a bulllish stance.
Can the October drop of last year return again? Sure - but Obama sure won't like that and his money backers are the Wall Street gang - they seem to be pretty good at moving things along in their own best interest ;-D . The biggest caveat is, If we do get more stimulus, there will be a lot of people chasing commodity stocks up very hard.
Downside risk here is $2.40 and on a severe market correction, $1.80 on a flash crash.
Upside is $4.00 + / -
Time will tell