RE: RE: Another source of information? In response to geodude13's comments about the minerology of the Canol and Bluefish. The composition is over 80% silica with less than 5% clay. The reason that you avoid water fracs is because water causes clays to swell and this reduces permeability: called formation damage. So the reason Husky is planning on doing a 20 ton sand frac with oil as the carrying agent is not to prevent formation damage. I think the reason for not using a water based frac is that they would have to truck the contaminated water that flowed back during testing to a disposal site in Alberta. With oil as the frac fluid they can sell the oil to Normal wells where it is treated and put into the Canol pipeline.
Fracturing works best in a brittle formation: glass shatters while wet clay doesn't. A shale that is dominated by silicia (Canol and Bluefish) or carbonates (Horn River and Eagle Ford) are brittle and hence easily fractured. A shale that is dominated by clay is ductile and not a good candidate for facturing.
The issue for the Canol is not whether it contains hydrocarbons, but if they can recover HC from the rock. Before the advent of horizontal drilling and massive 30 stage fracs, the answer was NO. The brittleness of the Canol is a favourable factor which suggests that fracturing will allow oil to be recovered. The BIG question is what is the recovery factor. Will it be as high as the Bakken at 8% or as low as the Eagle Ford at 6% or perhaps even lower???? This is the big risk factor. Given the amount of well control in the area, I think the amount of Original Oil ip Place (OOIP) is know within a reasonable band of certainty. The low numbers are 400 bbls per acre foot with 800,000 acres and 800 bbls per acre foot with 2,000,000 acres. Average net pay is about 250 feet, so you can work out the OOIP and apply a recovery factor of your choice.
For reference, the remaining recoverable reserves in the USA are 19 billion barrels and Pruduoe Bay contained 13 billion barrels recoverable. When you do the math, you can see why the super majors have committed over $600 million to the play.