RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: MIRROR I wish I had a dime for every analyst that predicted a bullish price. But thankfully I do not need them- done very well over the years based on sheer practicalities and following some basic common sense.
"actual mining is going on at a record pace" and the comment about CEOs covering themselves if things do not "pickup next year". Sorry these (older) guys think in blocks of decades and the current supply on near all metals is more than enough to cover global demand for the next decade (exception: uranium). And any upticks can be accomodated with small existing mine expansion. The record pace is largely based on Chinese demand projections which is dropping significantly. Please research dry bulk rates to get a flavour. One books ships years in advance and new vessels do not roll off an assembly line in a few months.
Bottom line is global trade is going to be well off these levels over the next five years. If they are not I will give each guy $100 that reproduces this post in five years time.
In reference to me being "overly bearish" not at all. Bearish would be a return to
.50 (which can still happen). I am suggesting a likely return to $2 which is a very good return from these levels. Anything sustainable above $3 is not that likely with what is unfolding over the next 5 years.
Be realistic and you will not get burned.