RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Opinions CD, you argue well, but you leave out one important factor, namely the type of contract that Mira has. The terms for marginal fields are vastly superior to the type of onshore fields that Heritage bought into. Also, I'm suspecting there might be liabilities that Heritage are taking over in terms of decommisioning that impact the price? Also, transporting your crude onshore means that as much as 20% dissappear in "rural royalty"
However, I agree that 50c is probably a strech if you only look at the 2C, that would value the resources they have at around 7 USD/bbl, and any acquirer would in addition have to drill one more well and spend some money on infrastructure (60-70 MUSD rough estimate) to put this into production. I think the 51-101 when it is out will show a NPV/bbl in the neighbourhood of 15 USD, thanks to the extraordinary generous cost recovery scheme that these contacts offer (which you and others are well aware of since you follow MMT closely)
I earlier claimed 5 USD/bbl on future 2P as reasonable, and I stand by that. Hopefully a buyer will also be able to see the upside in the prospective resources and be willing to pay for that. For me, the biggest uncertainty is funding of TSB-3, if that can be done through debt, we have a whole different set of cards on hand than if our only other option than selling is dilution. Don't underestimate the chairman.
Finally, if I extrapolate your argumentation, you're basically saying that this whole process with data rooms and First Energy as an advisor is dead in the water since no one would even pay what Mira is worth today...are you saying that the external interest for Mira that mgnt communicates to the market and the insider buys they have done is one big window dressing for something else? I'd be very curious to heard what your conspiracy theory is...
Best, D