RE: So what's a good buyout valuation? Some semi-rough numbers I put together based on Crescent point's recent transactions with Cutpick and Wildstream, on an EV/flowing boe basis at 5000 boe and adjusted for 0.98 pc oil you get approximately 2.80. Now you could revise that down based on financial distress, or revise it up due to all the money spent on the pipeline and waterflood.
I'm gonna say a bid comes in at about 2.60 + or - 0.25.
Also for the wildcard consideration they could also try pick up Pennwests position, I think pengrowth has some land there too, but elected to cut their dividend instead of more asset sales. But Pennwest has some real good acreage there, and are looking to raise about $1Billion through asset sales of non core properties. In my opinion Swan hills is for them is a core property, but they could do well by selling it off for some good dough, it;s a very small portion of their production right now(they said they're dispositions are going to be less than 10,000 boe/d) and it's very costly to develop, which they really don't need right now.
It works really well for CPG too, PWT has really good well control on its lands, it could really benefit from all that data, and then even after they pick up Pennwests lands they are still Arcans only hope and can pick that up a little ways down the road.
And my "Not gonna happen but i can dream scenario" Crescent point takes out Pennwest in an all share deal. I would buy that company 10 times over. Could you imagine what Crescent point would do with Pennwests asset base, it'd be $100 stock in 2 years.