What Now? Folks,
So here we sit. It's approximately 16 hours before the voting results are counted and presented in the two meetings set for tomorrow morning.
Although there is a lack of clarity about how late one can actually finalize their votes, it seems from the formal proxy document that it was one business day before the proxy deposit date which was yesterday (Sep 4). So if you want to vote or change your vote, it would probably be wise to contact Kingsdale and find out the best thing to do to ensure you are counted if that's still possible.
I expect that Yellow Media will know this morning where the tally stands as of the end of yesterday. Given the information they have, how will they behave? I see the following options:
Case 1 - Yellow does not have the 2/3 support from the proxies returned. Do nothing, allow the meeting to proceed and allow the proposal to be defeated. Then follow up quickly with the CCAA application as they indicated the would.
Case 2 - Yellow does not have the 2/3 support from the proxies returned. Withdraw the recap proposal and cancel (adjourn) the meeting. Then, get the Yellow Media spin doctors working overtime to prepare a news release along the lines: "Given the new information (Whatever - e.g. banks may extend) that recently came to our attention we now believe the a significantly more acceptable proposal can be prepared. We will convene a meeting for all stakeholder to vote on a new proposal on..."
Case 3 - Yellow does have the 2/3 support from the proxies returned. Although Yellow Media believes they have the majority they need, there are a lot of proxies not returned. The meeting goes ahead and bankers and debenture holders show up in person along with a smattering of preferred and common shareholders. The combined voting from the proxies returned and the folks on the floor results in less than 2/3 support from both classes. Proposal defeated - move to CCAA.
Case 4 - Yellow does have the 2/3 support from the proxies returned. There is not enough votes available from the floor to change the result. Slam Dunk for Tellier and his team so far. Next hurdle is to deal with the legal challenges raised.
Although Tellier has publicly stated that he will proceed CCAA (more drastic measures was the way it was put if I remember correctly) if the recap proposal is defeated, I am not convinced he will stand his ground on this position because it doesn't really seem necessary given the information that is publically available.
Other opinions?