forbes copy and pasted
Funny things happen in the closing hours of trading on Friday afternoons.
Let’s take, for instance, today’s sharp rally in shares of two of the tech sector’s most endangered companies: Nokiaand Research In Motion. Here we have two companies that are struggling for their very survival in a smartphone market that is dominated by the Apple iPhone and Android-based Samsung phones. Research In Motion is betting the ranch that BlackBerry 10 will save the company, but we won’t see phones based on the new OS until sometime in 2013. Nokia has gone all in on Windows Phone 8; a launch event earlier this week was not especially well received.
Now, let me say right up front here that it is certainly possible that RIM’s new OS will be astounding. And I really do think there could be an opening for Windows Phone 8, particularly if Microsoft can sow seeds of doubt with the Android OEMs about the conflicts Google has in both supplying software to handset makers and competing with them at the same time.
But I simply think that for Nokia and Research In Motion, the die has been cast. It is simply too late. They’ve already lost. They are the Walking Dead, the mobile phone sector’s zombie companies. Oh, sure, both companies have valuable patents, and various other salable assets. Even Palm found a rescuer in the end. (Nice move, HP!) But on a fundamental basis, the users have spoken. They like iPhones and Android phones. They’re less keen on BlackBerries and Windows phones. It’s just not that complicated.
So, if you are one of the crazies bidding up shares of Nokia and RIM on a quiet Friday afternoon, I’d say take your profits and get while the gettin’s good. For one thing, this weird little rally comes just days ahead of Apple’s launch of the iPhone 5. I don’t know precisely what the new edition of the phone will include, but I do know this: a lot of people will want them. From the day Apple starts selling, RIM will be another generation behind, and Nokia’s market share will continue to erode.
You want to gamble? Buy a lottery ticket. You want to bet on the smartphone market? Apple is still the play.
In today’s trading:
- NOK is up 16 cents, or 6.7%, to $2.62.
- RIMM is up 48 cents, or 7.2%, to $7.20.