RE: RE: RE: Fairness Opinions and the Vote So what's the fundamental value of a company that might generate $500m or $600m of annual EBITDA, or perhaps $400-500m, ignoring interest but taking into account taxes? Well, it's easily in the realm of reasonableness to give them a multiplier in the range of 6-to-10, implying that there could be an enterprise value ranging from $2.4B on the low end to as much as $5B on the high end. Knock off the $850m of "new debt" and you'd be left with $1,550m to $4,150m for shareholders. Divide that by 28 million new shares, and what kind of valuation do you get for the new equity? Easily $30 per share.
If Yellow Media had stable revenue, nobody would even think of restructuring it. I can't take seriously any valuation that pretends Yellow Media doesn't have sharply declining revenue.
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Yellow Media top-line revenue numbers
| Revenue | Source | Q/Q Change | Annualized | Y/Y Change |
Q3-2010 | 355,949 | Q3-2011 MD&A | | | |
Q4-2010 | 345,378 | Q4-2011 MD&A | -3% | -12% | |
Q1-2011 | 349,372 | Q2-2012 Financials | 1% | 5% | |
Q2-2011 | 342,738 | Q2-2012 Financials | -2% | -8% | |
Q3-2011 | 323,441 | Q3-2011 MD&A | -6% | -23% | -9% |
Q4-2011 | 313,315 | Q4-2011 MD&A | -3% | -13% | -9% |
Q1-2012 | 289,073 | Q2-2012 Financials | -8% | -31% | -17% |
Q2-2012 | 286,484 | Q2-2012 Financials | -1% | -4% | -16% |
</sensationalism>