Double resource and prod potential Double resource and prod potential
for both DM properties
- TM and
-- exploration lands surrounding TM
Rinse ,repeat .
1 . TM is shaping as world's top 15 -th producer
on Cu equiv basis - bigger than ANTO now
Comparing mine -to mine (not co to co ) - much higher
ANTO by developing TM will become world's top 5-6 th Cu equiv prod
( on pure = only Cu basis or basis of all metals - lower rank though
- but still world class ,say 10-12 -th top miner )
Bloomberg published table of the world’s 10 biggest copper producers ranked by 2011 mining output,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-05/codelco-freeport-mcmoran-led-10-largest-copper-miners-table-.html
Production is in thousands of metric tons and based on a company’s attributable output. If company A is owned by a mining company, the production is attributed to that other mining company. If company A is not owned by another mining company, the production is attributed to company A.
Company Production
1. Codelco 1,723
2. Freeport-McMoRan Copper 1,346 within next 1o years has to give for free 51% of Grasberg to gov
3. BHP Billiton Ltd. 1,054
4. Xstrata Plc 879
5. Grupo Mexico 651
6. Anglo American Plc 618
7. Southern Copper Corp. 593
8. Rio Tinto Group 555
9. Glencore International Plc 529
10. Antofagasta Plc 449 kt
===============
11. , TM at 100kt/day mill = 525 kt Cu - equiv.(1.5%)
So, TM will be bigger than ANTO in few years , though only on basis of Cu equiv .
ANTO cap is $ 13 B
DM at 1/4 end- stake in TM= $ 3.3 b = like $ 25 /sh
( with most capex paid by ANTO in exchange for further 25% stake )
Accounting for development problems ,future dilution, metals price fluctuations ,
time etc say $ 15 /sh FOR JUST DM STAKE IN TM
2. DOUBLE THAT WHEN DM WILL PROVE THE EXPLORATION LANDS HOLD AS BIG DEPOSIT AS TM
POTENTIAL PROD FOR BOTH = 1 MILLION TON Cu equiv -
as big as BHP Cu -only prod geeeeeeesus
3. Due to pending spin-off of the lands into separate co it will ad just 1/3 the DM value to DM share , though
Say, only extra 4-5$ /sh in the end
The stakes in spinco will be :
1/3 - DM shareholders who got FREE shares
1/3 DM - the co
1/3 for IPO float
If the spin-off will be as successful as the DM spin-off from WM....
Lets see what happened
WM after spinning DM held 1/3 shares . WM shareholders 1/3 and PP at IPO 1/3 .
(seee the pattern ? rinse , repeat )
DM started trading at about $30m cap
Now is $300m cap and well below $ 4 all high
If DM is a 10 bagger after spinn-off , the new co holding exploration lands have easy potential to rise 5 times after IPO and add a value to DM , holding 1/3 of it.
Even more value to patient shareholders holding both DM and free spinco warrants
They will try to do with the spinco another ,similar (BEAUTIFULL ) deal as DM - ANTO deal
With someone else or ANTO
If with ANTO , that can put ANTO in top big 5 miners in world
And Duluth complex at par with Olympic Dam, Oyu Tolgoi , Los Bronces ,
Antamina, Grasberg etc
IN SAFEST JURISDICTION ON THE PLANET , $ 1 b infrastructure in place
and sea access few miles away
Forget the $ 3b sale of Voices Bay- just the undeveloped resource
- it is nothing in comparison to DM
4. BAD NEWS
Big guys never let small guy holding world clas treasure to make too much money on it .
They ALWAYS take over the small guy LONG BEFORE HE REALISES FULL POTENTIAL
Means .forget a 10 bagger
Say, they will TO DM at 4- 5 bagger level but much sooner than 5 Y
So, the aver +200% /y will still be there
DM moved from last bottom 70% in couple of months geeeesus
When inflation will SURELY explode in next 5 Y
(FED declared unlimited OPEN -ENDED printing )
, than multiplay the above .
5 TECHNICALS
5.1 Volume explosion ( accelerating each next day ) and price explosion
Sep 11, 2012 - 8k vol
Sep 12, 2012 - 16.5 k vol
Sep 13, 2012- 55.5 k
Sep 14, 2012 -- 352 k = - 5 times aver
Sep 17, 2012 - 246 k - 4 times aver
Sep 18, 2012 474 k - 7 times aver
Sep 19 - 790 k - 12 times aver
5.2 in a bull trend - jumped above 200DMA as Forbes here noticed
https://www.forbes.com/sites/energystockchannel/2012/09/18/duluth-metals-makes-bullish-cross-above-critical-moving-average/?partner=yahootix
5.3 Perfect reverse H&S pattern with $ 2.4 target
In mid July vertical jump above 50 DMA $ 1.4 to 1.95 = 40%
50 DMA and 50 weeks DMA acted as support consolidation for 2 months before
next vertical jump now: $ 1.8 to $ 2.33 = 30%, on 12 times vol
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DM.TO&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m50%2Cm200&a=&c=
THE 2 vertical jumps were never in history so vertical/ furious in such short time
5.3 Accumulation , on balance vol, Chalking osc and Chalk money flow went also vertical
5.4 WHAT TO EXPECT
I guess . similar conslolidation as after the jump above 50 DMA =- above 200DMA this time
before next jump up
Good fundamental news pending in next couple of months.
Simultaneous stimulus/ QE by China .EU ,US ( another MINIMUM $ 1 T till 2015 )
screems bull in gold , commodities , stocks prices ....regardless of bad economy
geee
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