RE: RE: 99c gold anyone ? Redmetal said
"If GEE is right at $38 a share, Redmetal will be worth $9,500,000. GEEESUS!"
Redmetal, do not missinterprtet my comparisons.
I tend to exsaggerate to show in sharper light the miss -pricings
I said : " @ 100kt /d mill TM ,the prod will be 500m lb Cu equiv
Which is more than ANTO CU prod. ( not ANTO Cu equiv prod )
ANTO = $ 19 B cap
DM $310 m cap
Over 60 times difference
If DM would reach ANTO cap = $ 130 DM share
At 1/4 final DM stake in TM + stake in future spinco = $ 38 DM sh
But DM will never be ANTO , therefore never will be $ 38 stock
.Because
1.ANTO has many other businesses on top of mining
2. Produces many other metals = produces more on Cu equiv basis than 500m lb Cu only
3.Cu equiv is not pure Cu prod = is valued less
I do not know what discount to apply in the ANTO cap to points 1-3
( find out ,please) to arrive at comparable number to DM
Assunme safely 1/2 = $ 19 DM share
From that discount
A --time value ,
B -- dilution few years from now , if the , say , $ 500m ANTO payment for 25% TM
will be not enough for DM portion of capex
( Oyu Tolgoi spent just on first phase capex (= 1/2 whole ) $ 6 b
so , DM portion can be $ 1.5 b but later = by 2017 )
Safely slash for A+B , that $ 19 / sh by 1/2 again = $ 9 DM sh = 4 bagger
Add to that 1/3 stake in future spinco = exploration lands
If spinco in few years will discover as big deposit as TM
+ will make similar deal with ANTO or someone else ( plenty of optimistic asumptions)
it should be worth as much as DM now = $ 300m
1/3 of that = $ 100m for DM
So , fair bullish target would be $ 9-10
As I said ,DM will be taken at that or below that price
So, redmetal , you will not make $ 9 m on DM
Is $ + 2 m = 4 bagger good enough for you : ) ?
At ANTO ( $ 500m ?? ) payment + initial holes outside of TM
sholud be a 3 bagger = $ 7
geeeeesus
The brokers smell the spinco issuance business , so now they
wanna " earn it / pay back ahead of time " by pushing SP up
and soon issuing upbeat "reoprts" / targets .( their usual practices )
Cos which do not need money from them are usually orphaned by them
( value traps require patience and conviction -they will be valued right in the end )
DM is moving now from value trap into value rocket .
geeesus
All needed is , to throw some bone to the dogs = scummy brokers and they will bark " Alleyullah " LOL
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