RE: I think RIMM will positively surprise tomorrow This quarter's results are near-on meaningless, IMO. The BB10 news is much more important, at least for me. But I can speculate too:
- Heins said they're only through 40-50% of their restructuring, which means those expenses won't all hit in Q2 as many had been expecting.
- The subscriber base increased, but most likely the average selling price per unit continued to fall.
- R&D costs probably continued to be high.
- Cash probably fell, though operating cash flow is still probably strongly positive.
I see a loss of anywhere from $0.50-$1.00 per share, whereas before I thought a loss of >$1.00 was distinctly possible. Assuming the cash flow is similar, that means they'll lose $250-$500M from their $2.2B treasure chest. Certainly not nice, but hardly a fatal blow. They can absorb several of those if worse came to worse before they'd have to start worrying about cash.