NDX info So I am working on a little project where I'm going to create an interactive spreadsheet to calculate SND's share price by entering in cash costs, commodity price, production, recoveries, etc. for each of SND's streams. I was starting with NDX and I came across the following info:
NDX's all in cash cost for Rex is about $150. Earlier I made a post about NDX's cash cost being $120 - $125. This is accurate per the NI 43-101 (created March 2012, so we know it should factor in the ballooning inflationary costs we've seen in the mining industry). The actual cash cost is $121 per the NI 43-101, however, when including CAPEX expenditures (removing the overburden, buying new equipment, etc.), it increaess to $149, lets call it $150.
Additionally, the mineable reserves per the NI 43-101, i.e., what the engineers feel there is a 90% chance of being mineable, is 11.3 million tonnes of coal reserves. That means production of about 500,000 - 600,000 tonnes per year for about 23 years. However, actual resources are about 47 million tonnes. Yes that is not a made up number, the actual resource is 4x larger than the reserves. If we can convert even 25% more of the 47 million tonnes to reserves, we double the mining life to 46 years.
At a $170 met coal price, per the NI 43-101, annual cash flow is estimated at $12.5 million, before the royalty. Not bad, but not a whole lot. But if we hit $200 met coal, we are suddenly talking about $30 million cash flow. $220 met coal? $42 million cash flow per annum. Nolan once said he thought NDX would be worth $200 - $300 million. If met coal gets back up to $200, and NDX keeps their costs under control, a $100 million market cap is very achievable. $100 million would place our share price around $0.14. $220 met coal would see us trading $160 - $200 million market cap., now we are talking $0.21 to $0.28. With 300 million shares that is worth up to $90 million.
For better or worse, a lot of our value is now tied up in met coal. I guess this is where we cross our fingers and hope for met coal to get back up to $190-$200.
Hope you guys found this useful, I'll be digging into some of the other companies NI 43-101's and FS later on.