RE: RE: RE: RE: Insider cross trade It's important to make a distinction between value and projected price. I have absolutely no idea how the market is going to react to this company in the future. What I do know is that, right now, it is trading at roughly 15% of its fair value (according to my estimates). This tells me two things: 1. the market is capable of grossly underpricing shares and 2. at some point in the future, the invisible hand of the market will push this company upward, because that is the direction of its fair value.
Demand collapsing is not a viable threat, since we're going to be fairly well protected by the offtake agreement with IMC. This gives us an advantage over most other mines. That means that others would be driven out of business before us, limiting supply, and boosting prices. IMC is willing to do this, because they receive the exact same benefit, in reverse: if tungsten prices skyrocket, IMC is protected, because they are going to get a below-market rate. As a result, they (ISCAR, Tungaloy, and TaeguTec) have a competitive advantage over all their competitors in their respective niches. What's more, management at IMC has consistently shown that they're capable of exactly this kind of deliberate strategic moves. It's the reason Warren Buffett calls them brilliant in several shareholder reports since BH bought IMC in 2006.
In the short term, I have no idea what's going to happen. In the long term, things are looking pretty exciting.