RE: Repsol confidence Not a chance! They will be lucky to get 20% of the in situ value which is .2 x 300 million or $60 million but would settle for them covering cgx's share of Jaguar re-drill costs which could be anywhere from $150-200 million so $30-40 million. If they can get a deal for drilling costs in exchange for 5% then that in my opinion is a major coup. This well is still a wildcat and nothing is for sure! Yeah if they hit then repsol makes between 7.5-10 times their money depending on final well costs but that would be fair for the gamble takin. If Jaguar hits then Cgx has at least 200 million barrels at $5 thats a $3 share price. At that point they can do a big raise of say $250-300 million for 100 million shares and won't have to throw in warrants! Then they can attack Eagle 2 on there own. If Jag is a bust on the second go then they are in big trouble and i would hope cut a deal with PRE for a percentage of Eagle 2 (whatever that may be) and get carried on the drilling costs. That would be their only hope at that point. Would think if they could hang on to 20-25% and get a full carry that would be an amazing achievement as if Eagle 2 has even a billion barrels they still get minimum 200 million barrels but could be double that. At $5 a barrel thats a share price of $2.50 on the low side and $5 on the high side. If Jag re-drill hits and they do the financing and hit on Eagle 2 then the share price could be anywhere from $15 ($3 for Jag's 200 mill barrels at 20% and $12 for a billion at Eagle) or $27 ($3 for Jag and $24 for 2 billion barrels at Eagle) All in all many different possible outcomes for share price over the next year-year and a half. Just my humble opinion after having watched this lay for the last 10 years. GLTAL's!
Longrider