RE: Why Geulis? This is the 3rd of a three well program on this particular concession that they had planned to drill this year. The first one was abandoned due to very difficult conditions and will be re-drilled after this one, when they have figured out how to do it properly. The second is currently being finished by a service rig (and may or may not be a major discovery. The jury is still out on that one). So this is the 3rd. It is a quick short one (if everything goes according to plan) as the bad weather season is only about 6 weeks away at most.
I would not be concerned too much about the very low estimates in case of success. This is a very prolific area with many successful very large producers. The outcome could be anything, notwithstanding the estimates.