Lifton on Dysprosium...which Stans just demonstrat Here's what Jack Lifton said about dysprosium back in June 2012...which of course Stans Energy just demonstrated in can produce at KRP with 99.99% purity (so far...five 9s is in reach). Of course, he never mentioned Stans in the article, which is completely shameful and utterly ridiculous:
https://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/13618
TCMR: What other critical rare earths are you watching?
JL: The big issue in magnets is the HREE dysprosium. There is not now, nor has there ever been, any production of dysprosium from outside of China. There are several possible significant dysprosium sources coming on-line in the next two to four years from hard-rock sources outside of China.
None of the mines are at any stage where we can predict when they will be commercially producing. Two to four years out would be the earliest any new dysprosium production could occur outside of China. Dysprosium is already in short supply. The total world production of dysprosium in the last 12 months is unlikely to have exceeded 1.4 Kt. The market will be in deficit if dysprosium usage increases due to production of REE permanent magnets. The dysprosium market is in balance at 1.4 Kt. With 8% growth in demand each year, we're going to need about 100 tons (t) a year of additional dysprosium.
I don't see that happening easily. Only four or five new HREE producers could be in production in the next three or four years.
Dysprosium is going be in short supply for some time and will, therefore, maintain its price. Everybody talks about how the price dropped from $2,500–1,200/kilogram (kg) of 99.9% metal. That is comical, because the peak people are using is the speculative bubble last year. The current price of dysprosium is significantly higher than the real long-term baseline. I believe it's going to maintain its price of approximately $1,200/kg for 99.9% metal in China.
Dysprosium is the problem metal for everyone, because no hard-rock source has ever been put into production. I'm intrigued by Molycorp's statements that it will be meeting America's demand for dysprosium by the end of next year. Company officials estimate America's dysprosium demand at 7 t/a, exactly what Molycorp projects to produce with 100% recovery from its deposit. That 7 t would only be for the military, which has decided it is going to need about 160 t/year of REE permanent magnet material, of which 7 t would be dysprosium. In the world market, that is insignificant. It's an accounting error. The people at Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. (GWG:TSX.V; GWMGF:OTCQX) tell me the company's South African mine will be in production in less than 24 months, and it will produce 34 t of dysprosium per year. This is from one of the richest REE deposits on earth. The ore ranges from 18–21% total REEs, but it doesn't have very much of it, and it doesn't have very much dysprosium. The 34 tons per year (t/a) is enough for internal consumption. It's not being sold into the market. It is being transferred internally to the company's Less Common Metals division in Great Britain, where it will be made into dysprosium-enhanced neodymium iron boron magnets.
Two large hard-rock sources of dysprosium I think will be coming on-line, when the metallurgy, separation capability and permits get worked out. These are Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (UCU:TSX.V; UURAF:OTCQX) at Bokan Mountain in Alaska and Tasman Metals Ltd. (TSM:TSX.V; TAS:NYSE.A; TASXF:OTCPK; T61:FSE) in Sweden. These deposits are being developed to produce 3,900 t/a and a little less than 6,000 t/a, respectively. Bokan would produce 120 t and Tasman 350 t of dysprosium per year at those levels. These are the first two major hard-rock REE deposits that look like they're going into production.
There are other deposits that are less well known and could be sleepers. One is Lynas' Duncan deposit in Australia. When put into production, it could be a major dysprosium source. The other is the Rare Element Resources Ltd.'s (RES:TSX; REE:NYSE.A) deposit at Bear Lodge, Wyoming, which could be a significant hard-rock source of dysprosium ultimately with a longer mine life than and at least as large a production as Ucore.
There's also significant dysprosium at Hastings Rare Metals Ltd. (HAS:ASX) and Northern Minerals (NTU:ASX) in Australia, but these are quite early. No matter what we do right now, we're going to be short of dysprosium for at least the rest of this decade, if not permanently. If dysprosium supply limitations are not addressed, growth in the use of REE permanent magnet devices for rapid heating and cooling environments will be affected.