Potential Value of Dorado Some notes:
-Caballos was anticipated to be over 10,000 acres of closure and had a Gross P50 of about 30mm bbls (20MM net to pdq)
- They are not sure if they reached the Caballos, but in any case it is no longer a target. Tetuan non-existent.
- The 2 sandstone zones are shallower than Caballos, so is the shale, cheaper to develop.
- The total clastic section was over 2,000 feet gross. With 2,000ft+ gross, the aerial extent must be quite large, likely larger than the inital Caballos closure. The shale would be even bigger, possibly substantially.
- Porosities are mid-range (7-15%), but the oil/condensate is light and will flow better per unit of porosity. Of course, there is much more to it, but as a general rule you might expect a higher mid-range permeability all else being equal.
- They are permitted for lots of wells (not sure exactly how many), but development could be quick. Also a pipeline within 20 KM.
- They lost 4000+ bbls of Mud in the light oil section, a good sign for permeability.
- Shale section is quartz rich, should have some info soon on it's properties.
- 300-500 bopd is commercial, depending on the Api of the oil.
SUMMARY: The prospects on this well are as good or better than they were pre-drill, and we are a few weeks away from finding out if any of the zones at Dorados can commercially flow oil. If they do, and it is a pool in excess of 20mm bbls net to PDQ, it is worth at least 3 times the current market cap at $15/bbl.
And to boot, they will shortly be drilling a high impact well in the NW portion of CPO-5 (corcel, yatay, etc), and a second one before year end. Yes, high risk, but a great risk/reward profile IMO.
disclosure: I own a lot.