Treat Both Companies as a Whole Ball of Wax The following analysis treats MMY, YNG, and the new Mengapur project as one seeing as the directors and officers are acting together. The conclusion is that if all development runs smoothly with Mengapur becoming a NPV 400 million project then we the joint shareholders of MMY and YNG stand to be worth $7.2 or $0.96 /share depending on whether theres no more dilution and the combined O/S shares remain at 266 M or zoom up to 2 B. The figures below are the leftmost column of my DCF analysis. The key elements are i) mining rate assume PP Reserves/10 ii) Shareholders of both companies amalgamate their shares at 1 old share = 1 new share in the "Whole Enchilada Mining Co" iii) CAPEX to develop Mengapur ased on INMET/Cobre Panama but scaled down by the fraction of which Mengapur's production is of Cobre's - capital costs start in 2014 and are spread over 4 years iv) production at Mengapur starts with 1/2 production in 2017 and full production therefter v) no new CAPEX at MMY (other than Mengapur) and none at YNG - they would be the cash cows. Following the laws of least surprise, MMY stock will remain near .45 and another 50 M dillution to a fifth party after they've blown through the $25 M to prove up Mengapur at this time next year, followed by a merger of MMY with YNG at a 10:1 reverse split.
All opinions welcome.
| AU Price | 1700 |
| AU cash cost | 317 |
| AG Price | 32 |
| AG cash cost | 0 |
| CU Price | 9000 |
| CU cash cost ($/T) | 2000 |
| rate | 20% |
| AU 2P (M oz) | 1.2 |
| AU 2P per YR (M oz) | 0.115 |
| AG 2P (M oz) | 63.9 |
| AG 2P per YR (M oz) | 6.39 |
| CU 2P (MT) | 0.6 |
| CU 2P per YR (MT) | 0.0561 |
| Mkt Cap | 75 |
| Share Price | 0.45 |
| Shares (M) | 266 |
| Blue Sky Fully Diluted | 2000 |
| | |
| Mengapur | 2012 |
| AU prodn | 0 |
| AU sales | 0 |
| AU cost | 0 |
| AU net | 0 |
| AG prodn | 0 |
| AG sales | 0 |
| AG cost | 0 |
| AG net | 0 |
| CU prodn | 0 |
| CU sales | 0 |
| CU cost | 0 |
| CU net | 0 |
| Total | 0 |
| CAPEX | |
| CAPEX | |
| CAPEX | |
| CAPEX Total | 0 |
| Grand Total | 0 |
| MMY.V | 62.235 |
| YNG.TO | 159.808 |
| Whole Enchilada Mining Co. | 222.043 |
| | |
| | |
| dcf | $1,926 |
| dcf per share | 7.241993886 |
| diluted dcf per share | $0.96 |