RE: Targets and chance Taking your best case scenario of 7467 oz for the last 3 months of 2012 times 4 quarters is a rate of 29,868 oz/yr which is almost the 30k that i thought they would be profitable at.
In the press release they said they did this during the third quarter:
"began the development of underground infrastructures such as the escape-way, the ore handling system, the permanent dewatering system, and the bulk explosive storage all necessary for eventual commercial production at the Bachelor project."
All of these are one time items that only needs to be completed once. In the fourth quarter they won't need to do most of this which means they can spend more time on actual mining, so the rate of production can increase.
The only fixed number we have is the forecast of 14,226 oz for 2012 from the 43-101 report (ignore anything Ronald Perry says in his PR talk). There is no month by month breakdown. It's possible that they start off slow and increase the production rate. We won't really know for sure if they are off or on schedule until the final oz production numbers are in for 2012.
As well the price of gold has an effect on the point when they become cash flow positive. Nov. and Dec. are usually the strongest months for gold price.