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Sandstorm Metals & Energy Ltd STTYF



GREY:STTYF - Post by User

Comment by elmothefearlesson Nov 07, 2012 5:15pm
400 Views
Post# 20574007

RE: RE: RE: National Bank raises target on SND - N

RE: RE: RE: National Bank raises target on SND - N

Yes... price targets are always 52 weeks out, unless specified otherwise.

 

Interesting matter of note... at todays copper price of $3.50, we would earn about $2.70 / lb of copper sold ($3.50 - $0.80).  Based on the NI 43-101 report, we would expect that to be 5 million to 6 million lb's of copper attributable SND to be produced per year.

 

So we would expect to earn about $13 - $16 million / annum from this stream.

 

If you present that over 8 years (the current LOM) at 5% discount, we would be looking at a present value of about $90 - $95 million.  In other words, over 50% of our NAV is currently tied up with the Donner deal.

 

The CSI deal, without a buyback, is probably worth $30 - $40 million on a NPV basis, meaning the remaining $40 million of our market cap. is tied up in TER, NDX and TBD.

 

TBD alone could be worth $80 - $150 million based on $4 or $5 natural gas.  NDX we have invested almost $40 million dollars in - at $200 met coal we'll double our investment and be able to pull $40 - $50 million out of this.  If TER earns only half of what we expect it to generate for us, we're still looking at $3 - $4 million a year in cash flow, NPV that, it's probably worth $20 million.

 

If you don't want to look at SND on a NAV basis, value SND based on cash flows... $15 million + $1 million from NDX + $1 million from TBD = $17 million - $2 million G+A = $15 million x 20 FCF = ~$300 million = ~$0.95 / share 

 

Anyway lets cross our fingers that the market dips and the warrants are not exercised, then we get a nice pop and Nolan can do a small financing of $15 - $20 million at $0.80 or higher.

 

And darn you denisnod for being so rich and being able to buy so much SND :)

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