RE: RE: RE: RE: net loss per share quadrupled... Fully agree, Walter...
I haven't had a chance to competely read through the MD&A or F/S yet, but the one encouraging takeaway is the propect of increased production. I have held strong, and my model validates this, that LSG needs to achieve at least 2500/tpd and over 4.2-4.3 g/t to work their way out of this hole they are in. At their current production rates stated to date, they'll be looking at a 2300 avg for Q4 and about 4.2-4.3 g/t, which is enough to get about 25-26k ounces and put them at 86-87k ounces for the year.
They must get the mill to 2500/tpd, preferrably 3000tpd. A fully fed mill at 3000tpd will allow lower grades to be fed and still achieve positive results, both from an operating and cash-flow standpoint.
At 2500/tpd they would need a grade of at least 5.25g/t to hit their 135k ounce guidance for 2012. However, at 3000/tpd they would only need 4.5g/t.
The key is the mill - you've got to have capacity. Like they said, there is 70,000 tons of ore sitting idly by. At 2500 tpd that's a month of production or almost 10k ounces of gold waiting to be processed. No doubt there will be more coming and even greater stockpiles.
Off all the commentary on the call, I found the greatest confidence in Dan Gagnon's statements. Tony alos sounded and presented himself much better at times, but seems he gets a bit shaky when discussing the misses LSG has. Hopefully that will resolve itself through continued improvement in results!
Best of luck,
Golfcar72