Graphite prices stay stable; potential rises for early 2013
07 November 2012
Market will support additional supply and higher prices but near-term is uncertain
Graphite prices have remained stable in recent weeks, market sources have informed IM. The steadying of the graphite market, which had been sliding since May as a slow-down in demand began to deflate the mineral’s two-year price bubble, had been widely predicted by market analysts and observers. All grades have remained within IM’s price ranges (see table below) since the beginning of October, according to market indications. A European source told IM last week that it had observed increased prices for large flake material at 94-97% C, but these was unsupported by other pricing contacts around the world.
IM Data expects that prices will remain stable until the end of 2012, but may start rising in January or February 2013 when graphite customers start buying again after the winter shut-down of mines in China. Buyers will be waiting to see what the demand sentiment is for H1 2013, and suppliers will be hoping that there is pent-up demand for steel and refractory products following the winter closures which should have a positive impact on graphite prices. Given the shaky economic conditions in China, the US and Europe, however, IM Data’s view is that the pricing outlook remains uncertain at present.
Graphite “super cycle” in motion
Other graphite market observers have agreed that prices are steady for now, with the potential for a future boost based on projected demand growth. “We believe that the decrease in graphite prices has been overdone somewhat and has hit a floor,” Chris Berry, founder of the market research firm House Mountain Partners LLC said in an information note earlier this week. “While graphite prices are high by some historical measures, the recent decrease is a welcome sign and adds validity to our long term super cycle thesis supporting higher commodity prices.” Berry cautioned, however, that prices would not remain high indefinitely, and that prices were unlikely to move in a linear fashion. He added that the graphite market was not yet saturated, and that the projected pricing environment could support the entry of further suppliers. “While the fall in graphite pricing is no doubt due to an uncertain macroeconomic environment, we view this as temporary and still believe that graphite (flake graphite, in particular) is a tight market with room for a small number of new producers in coming years.” “We are (...) of the opinion that the looming supply consolidation within China outweighs any softening of demand in the near-term,” Berry said, adding “this should be supportive of pricing going forward.”
China exported just over 25,000 tonnes of natural graphite in September, a decrease of around 45% year-on-year (yo-y) according to Chinese trade statistics acquired by IM Data. Amorphous graphite supply is expected to be hardest hit by Chinese consolidation. September exports were down 55.6% y-o-y at around 3,200 tonnes, according to Chinese data.
Future demand will support pricing
Berry’s assessment of future graphite demand was largely positive, with expansion in new and existing applications expected to shore up prices even as new capacity comes onto the market. “Additional supply will be needed to feed the demand for the 180 end products that require graphite,” Berry said, citing forecasted growth in demand from “next generation technologies (batteries)” underpinned by strong existing consumption from the steel industry.
Last week, IM reported that Canada’s Focus Graphite Inc. had released its preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for its Lac Knife property in Quebec, where it estimated life-of-mine output of over a third of a million tonnes of battery-grade graphite with a purity of over 99.9% C. Prices for this material exceed $10,300/tonne at present, but Focus said it was also planning to target non-battery, specification-led applications for high purity graphite, with prices ranging from $5,000 to $40,000/tonne. Market sources have since contacted IM to question the existence of such markets and, if they exist, what quantities of high value material such applications will consume per annum. Focus graphite has said that it is in negotiations with customers worldwide to supply what it terms “speciality niche markets” with its high purity graphite, but did not give details of any particular supply agreements.
IM’s prices for graphite are - Source: IM Prices Database
Graphite Price Date Low High
Graphite, Synthetic, 99.9% C, $/kg, Switzerland 6 Nov 2012 7.00 20.00
Graphite, Flake, 94-97% C, +80 mesh, FCL, CIF Europe port, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 1400.00 1800.00
Graphite, Flake, 85-87% C, +100 mesh, FCL, CIF Europe port, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 900.00 1150.00
Graphite, Flake, 90% C, -100 mesh, FCL, CIF Europe port, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 850.00 1050.00
Graphite, Flake, 94-97% C, -100 mesh, FCL, CIF Europe port, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 900.00 1200.00
Graphite, Flake, 94-97% C, +100 mesh -80 mesh, FCL, CIF Europe port, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 1050.00 1400.00
Graphite, Amorphous, -200 mesh, 80-85% C, China, FCL, CIF Europe port, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 600.00 800.00
Graphite, Synthetic, 97-98%, CIF Asia, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 950.00 1450.00
Graphite, Synthetic, 98-99%, CIF Asia, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 1000.00 1500.00
Graphite, Amorphous Ore, 70-75% C, ex-works Austria, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 500.00 580.00
Graphite, Flake, 90% C, +80 mesh, CIF Europe port, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 1200.00 1600.00
Graphite, Flake, 90% C, +100 mesh -80 mesh, FCL, CIF, Europe port, $/tonne 6 Nov 2012 950.00 1200.00
Industrial Minerals Data is a new online subscription service for graphite and fluorspar launching in Q1 2013. It will provide in-depth prices via a new interactive database and analysis. IM Data Graphite will launch with 43 mineral prices for different grades of flake, amorphous, vein, spherical, and expandable graphite.