Q3 Projection July oil production from field before pipeline losses = 318,500
July estimated pipeline loss via Mart 13.8%
August oil production from field before pipeline losses = 324,000
August estimated pipeline loss via Mart 13.7%
Sept. oil production from field before pipeline losses = 298,982
Sept. estimated pipeline loss via Mart 11.6%
3 Month total of oil produced before pipeline losses= 941,482
Mart take at 82.5% (Q1 take)= 776,722 or Mart take at 68% (Q2 take) 640,207.
Mart's share of oil produced in Q2 was 408,638 and based on operational report data including pipeline losses, my Q3 estimate is between 776,722 to 640,207 (much greater than Q2 408,638) . Brent stayed steady above 100 for most of the third quarter so based on this alone Q3 earnings could be very decent.
Source Quotes:
Mart's share of Umusadege field oil produced and sold in Q212 was 408,638 barrels of oil ("bbls") compared to 530,056 bbls for Q211,
Total crude oil deliveries into the export storage tanks from the Umusadege field for the month of July, adjusted for estimated pipeline losses, were approximately 358,500 bbls. AGIP has reported approximately 40,000 bbls of pipeline losses during the month of July, 2012 or approximately 10%.
Umusadege field net deliveries into the export pipeline were approximately
376,000 barrels of oil ("bbls") in August 2012 and 339,000 bbls in September
before pipeline losses.
Total crude oil deliveries into the export pipeline from the Umusadege field for August
2012 were approximately 376,000 bbls and for September 2012 were approximately
339,000 bbls before pipeline losses. Pipeline and export facility losses for August 2012
as reported to Mart by the pipeline operator were 52,000 bbls or approximately 13.7% of
total crude deliveries. July 2012 reported pipeline and export facility losses were 56,000
barrels or approximately 13.8% of total crude deliveries.