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Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd ANSBF



GREY:ANSBF - Post by User

Comment by thedave2006on Dec 01, 2012 6:44pm
115 Views
Post# 20671180

RE: Clarification

RE: Clarification

me too louel as long as coverting them is to one's advantage at the moment of converting, almost like trying to predict a share price's future when playing around with warrants, except warrants have a time value associated with them.  i did so when i tried to predict oil prices on pacific rubialais, its warrant was a like a bet on oil.  in case of a right and what to do as to how they trade as per your example of which i haven't done myself, closest one to compare to would be a stock i currently own in mcewen mining, there for every 10 rights you can get one share at $2.24 Cdn.  The stock more or less trades pretty close.  Stock at $3.70, right at 0.14......not too sure about time value or why some times at or not at a premium, now at a discount of 0.06 (10x0.14=1.40+2.24=3.64)

 

ps.  will be interesting to see how ans trades over next month, the big capper in west frasier is moving quite well along with many small to mid caps in the lumber space.  understaing more and more, it looks like for shareholders with rights, it woulld be best to convert to make up the possibe dip in sp.  then if we can all agree that lumber sector will do well, ans earnings, outlook and share price will go back up to say 3-5+ or higher....therefore, if one doesnt even exercise you should be able to make back the dip.  now if there isnt a dip in sp price one can also sell the rights since the rights should be in and around say 1.40s-1.50s, should a dip happen to say around 2 as per other posts, rights may be at around 0.20s so as to lessen the dip in sp then one has to make up less to recover lost gains by selling rights.  as to whether to buy them and exercise or trade them, dont really know.  it would seem if one can buy rights for 0.20s one needs to breakeven at about 1.73 (as discussed) +0.20s so in and around 2.00 not too bad unless sp sinks and stays below that, one should do well.

 

cheers,

dave.

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