RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: POS I think most would agree that there is tremendous potential here. The question is, are the odds of a 10x return in 1-2 years 10% or 50%? Of course, all highly speculative junior mining / E&P companies have the POTENTIAL for a 10x return. So one thing I look at is the fundamental downside on this stock. I just don't see it much downside. Technically the stock could go much lower, but I won't sell it. I'm confident that a major would step into CBM's shoes at the current stock price, i.e, takeout the entire company at 17 cents per fully-diluted share.
Posters who complain (perhaps rightfully so) that things are taking way too long are only looking at one side of the coin. The ongoing delays and difficulties doing business in Indonesia is exactly why the company is ultimately worth a lot of money to one of the 8 or so majors in Indonesia.
CBM has a 1-3 year lead on the projects that they own, control, have options on or own minority interests in. As CBM advances various projects, the NPV of each might be calculated using a discount factor of 10%-12%. Once a Major steps onto the scene, the discount factor falls to 7%-8% in a blink of an eye.
Said another way, readers on this message board should recognize how much more each CBM project or interest in a PSC is worth to a major than it is to CBM!!! That's the key. As we worry about the company monetizing its de-risked assets, we shouldn't assume that they will realize fire sale prices. I for one am assuming that the majors can afford an extra $10 million to make a deal happen! I won't be surprised if multiple bidders are interested in CBM's assets over time.
As difficult as Indonesia is, there are places that are worse. At least Indonesia is well endowed with Coal Bed Methane. I believe the company when they describe Indonesia as one of the best frontier countries in the world to acquire, develop and advance CBM assets.
Finally, I think Scott Stevens is amazing. He's been actively involved in-country since the mid 1990's. How many junior natural resource companies have we all seen over the years where the management team is running say a portfolio of African assets from Toronto or London? Scott Stevens is the real deal.