RE: Some Discrepancies Sure, 15 million shares on a total of 47 million assumed a while ago, certainly makes a difference. On top of that, you can state that Sandstorm dropped 33% in the past few months, Royal Gold 26% and Franco nevada 11%, where Premier/Bridgeport gained around 10%, from the 55 cents they were back then. The best thing to do is prepare an updated analysis. I will do this for Sandstorm and Premier only, as the other two are outside my scope. Premier/Bridgeport recently closed the deal with Yamana, which however was already included in the projections/esentations, where Sandstorm made a deal with Colossus and Mutiny, which were not included back then.
Total shares outstanding:
Sandstorm 86M + 28M, 32% future dilution
Premier 63M + 26M, 41% future dilution
Marketcap:
Sandstorm $11.60 * 86M = $998M
Premier $0.61 * 4 * 63M -/- 10% for the warrants = $138M
Cash at bank:
Sandstorm $ 130M
Premier $15M
Enterprise value (Mcap -/- cash)
Sandstorm $868M
Premier $123M
Cash flow projections based on both companies presentations with gold at $1,700
Sandstorm:
2013 $50M
2014 $67M
2015 $90M, average growth 35%
Premier:
2013 $8M
2014 $9M
2015 $10M, average growth 10%
Enterprise value/CF
2013: Sandstorm 17, Premier 15
2014: Sandstorm 13, Premier 14
2015: Sandstorm 10, Premier 12
Conclusion:
I don't intend to have performed here a perfect analysis of both companies. It is just a very rough comparison exercise to determine how those two companies are valued against each other. There are much more factors to be considered, like exploration potential, management performance, jurisdictions etc. so I urge everybody to do their own research. Based on this analysis however, Premier has, notwithstanding the conversion of the debt into shares and Sandstorms recent pull back, still a lower valuation, when based on next years cash flow. The future perspectives for Sandstorm however are superior. In fact, I am a little surprised with these results, as I expected Premier to be still substantially undervalued. Bottomline, I think that with a portfolio including above average positions for both royalty players, you will most certainly perform much better then the average investor.