3 Party Ownership Structure......... We have one fixed figure which is OLE's 136.6 million shares before options. The problem is that we still have two variables. We have not been given a figure on the exact percentage of ownership or the amount of shares the other two parties ( Bendon and Badr) own. This should have been provided by OLE management a long time ago so that us shareholders have a better idea of what will correspond to us in a buyout or merger.
Multiple sources have said that Bendon has not kept up with their payments for a while now and we all know that Badr will get a minimal percentage or amount of shares in a buyout because of their deminishing investment percentage. Considering these factors, I believe much less shares will be required to get a deal done.
Here is my guesstimate of a possible scenario.
OLE 136.6 million shares. That is a fact minus options which I have been told may be handled separately.
Bendon roughly 20% less or 110 million shares. I have heard even less.
Badr a maximum of 10 million shares. Again I have heard even less.
Total amount of shares in this speculative example is 256.6 million shares. It gives OLE a little over a 53% (136.6 / 256.6=53.2%) ownership in the project.
Per share examples at different buyout or merger totals using the 256.6 million shares and 53.2% ownership.
$350 million buyout/merger would yield a total of $186.2 million for OLE or $1.36 per share.
$400 million gives us $212.8 million or $1.56 per share.
$450 million gives us $239.4 million or $1.75 per share.
This total of 256.6 million shares may be too low and the 53.2% may be a bit high but I consider it very possible incorporating the above factors that I have mentioned above.
Lastly let us not forget the almost 19 million shares of OLE that TGZ owns and the stake the government will have in the project. If it is TGZ ( I believe it will be ) then the total of shares in my speculative example drops to about 238 million shares. This would make it substantially less expensive for TGZ.
Even if both TGZ and OLE are taken out together or TGZ goes first this speculative example may be useful as far as determing who gets what as far as the 3 party OJVG.
Comments?