RE: RE: RE: My Numeric Attempts
I've given it a closer read this weekend. I doubt the cash-position would be 9.5 mm for long, as stated in the news-release, since $1.5 mm gets put into NexGen. I'm thinking more like $8 mm free cash. Whatever, what's more interesting is the speculative "high-grade gold" is in properties that Wolfpack brings into this deal. Interesting because that's all they bring. (There's no available data I could find to let me know their definition of high-grade or what indications there are.) The Adelaide and Castle Rock properties, of which the latter has the 235K ounces inferred or what it amounts to, are interestingly not owned by Wolfpack. That detail slipped me the first read because I skipped all issuance and royalty stuff. What Wolfpack owns is:
- the option to acquire Golden Predator's leasehold interest in the Adelaide property by issuing 11 million of its common shares to Golden Predator over a three-year period
- the option to acquire Seabridge's leasehold interest in the Castle Black Rock property by issuing 11 million of its common shares to Seabridge over a three-year period
The exploration numbers, and I do not recall these accurately so I refer to the NI 43-101 reports, at around the end on the section "Interpretations and Conclusions":
- Castle Rock: $500K for Phase 1, $1.5mm for Phase 2
- Adelaide: $755K for Phase 1, ~$3.1mm for Phase 2.
So, the 235K ounce property is owned by Wolfpack first after issuing 11 mm shares as payment.
The Adelaide property is what they'd like to start drilling in March, 2013. So the potential timeline is:
- Jan/Feb/March: burn $415K in Wolfpack expenses (going by their last financial filing)
- March: begin burn $775K in exploration program
- Apr/May/Jun: burn $415 in Wolfpack expenses (assume that's their burnrate)
- Jul/Aug/Sep: burn $415 in Wolfpack expenses (assume that's their burnrate)
- Oct/Nov/Dec: burn $415 in Wolfpack expenses (assume that's their burnrate)
Estimated cash-position year end 2013: approx $5.5mm. Potentially recover the expenses by selling NexGen provided it's at least 66 cents, and that way reducing the expense to $1.5mm, which was the original investment in NexGen. I don't think they'll sell it, however.
Let's say Adelaide is a success, I'd assume we begin to issue 11 mm shares to Golden Predator, resulting ultimately in a ~20% dilution. Of course for the guys coming in from the uranium side of the deal with Tigris, but this is the Tigris discussion board. It would've been nice to see a cap on it like "11 mm shares or a maximum of $6.5mm", but I could not see one. Anyone that finds such a limit, please let me know.
Any or all of the above could've been misread or misinterpreted by me, so please don't take it for facts and do your own due diligence and verify the data. There's plenty available at SEDAR.com under Company Profiles and W for Wolfpack.