RE: Will CRJ produce 15K ozs in 4th Qtr? Let's review:
May 14: Q1: 66,556 tonnes milled, average gpt 4.74 and ounces produced 9574.
Aug 13: Q2: 72,808 tonnes milled, average gpt 5.45 and ounces produced 12,166.
Nov 14: Q3: 66,173 tonnes milled, average gpt 7.34 and ounces produced 15,073.
On Feb 10, CRJ forecasted 50,500 ounces of gold for 2012. On May 14, the Q report indicated a range of 50,000 to 52,000 ounces forecasted to be produced in 2012. On August 13, CRJ revised downward production forecasts to a range of 48,000 to 50,000 ounces produced in 2012. On Nov 14, CRJ indicated that it is on track to produce between 48,000 to 50,000 ounces of gold for the year.
When we total up Q1 to Q3, we arrive at 36,813 ounces of Au produced to date. To meet CRJ's downward revision, a total of 11,187 ounces of Au need to be produced in Q4 to arrive at 48,000 ounces total and 13,187 ounces need to be produced in Q4 to arrive at 50,000 ounces total in 2012. To arrive at the original forecast of 50,500 ounces total in 2012, CRJ will need to produce 13,687 ounces Au in Q4.
*In the Nov 14 reporting of Q3 numbers, CRJ stated that developmental tonnage from L62 was accessed in Q3 with production tonnage schedueled for Q4.
Production grades have increased 54.8% from Q1 to Q3 and this was on the heels of "developmental tonnage" from L62. In addition, one should not forget the higher grades being accessed at Seabee Deep in addition to L62.
CRJ producing 13,750 ounces of Au in Q4 is viewed as conservative by me given Q3 numbers of 15,073 ounces. IMO, CRJ overreacted to the poor grades in Q2 that gave them cause to revise downward total ounces in 2012. IMO, CRJ will exceed their original forecast of 50,500 ounces announced on Feb 10 and there is a good chance total 2012 ounces produced will exceed the upper limit of 52,000 ounces first forecasted (ie: that's 15,187 total ounces in Q4 to arrive at 52,000 oz's total).
In regards to Q3, CRJ issued preliminary production numbers on Oct 02 (ie: just days after Q's end). In early January of 2013, I strongly suspect that CRJ will once again issue preliminary production numbers for Q4 that could very well serve as a positive catalyst to the stock price (or not). Either way, I see no reason why tonnes milled will not be in line with Q's past nor do I suspect that average grams per tom will fall way short of those realized in Q3. Especially now that L62 entered into full production in Q4.
To close, what CRJ reports on the surface depends almost entirely upon what they produce down below. Management's role is actually limited and revolves around effectiveness and efficiency. As already realized, grades have put in three back to back Q improvements. Hence, what is in the ground has denoted a turn around. As for managements effectiveness and efficiency thereafter, I guess we will have to wait and see what cost saving efforts produce.
Just executed another buy......