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Claude Res Inc CLGRF

"Claude Resources Inc is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold and other precious metal properties. Its projects include Seabee Property and various exploration properties located at Laonil Lake. It also owns Amisk Gold Property."


GREY:CLGRF - Post by User

Post by Bottleson Dec 20, 2012 8:26am
274 Views
Post# 20754470

Back In's....

Back In's....

Those who sell a given stock for tax loss reasons with the intention to buy back in after the wash rule has been satisfied tend to do so early on in the tax loss season (ie: so called Back In's). The reasoning/rational is that by being early to sell, one can typically get a better price for their shares and buy back in after 30/31 days at a lower price). With the tax loss season drawing to a close (ie: gain or loss is recorded in the tax year of the settlement date), the so called "January Effect" on a given stock price can be fairly estimated. 

 

Via historical prices and volume on the US and Canadian markets, the trading sessions of Nov 27 (vol of 613,836 CA/ 421,400 US), Nov 28 (vol of 471,640 CA/ 324,100 US) and Nov 29 (vol of 595,075 CA/ 206,700 US) stand out as possible tax loss selling events. Of particular note is that this is also when CRJ broke below $0.60 per share. Thereafter, and on both exchanges, volumes were above average and the stock price was decreasing. On Nov 21, however, there was vol of 1,274,995 on the CA market but imo, tax selling in earnest did not start to take place until Nov 27. Hence, I discount this event.

 

Going forward, and over the short/near term, the equity markets are at risk of a major sell off and gold prices can easily go up $100 an ounce or down $100 an ounce in this environment. That said, the post Chistmass trading sessions should start to lend support to the stock price. Back In's aside, there are also your year end bargain hunters. In the area of PM equities, your producers tend to attract the greatest attention by bargain hunters.

 

Tax selling season aside, I thought it worthy to note as well that CRJ has not traded at these levels since 2008 (ie: below $0.60). IMO, this denotes an oversold situation. It also denotes a value play. The other day, a poster here estimated that Madsen alone was worth $100 million. If so, then it should be understood that CRJ currently trades at a market cap of $85M or so. That is, one can buy into Madsen right now and get Seabee and Amisk for free. 

 

To close, I will most likely be accused once again of pumping and trying to profit off unsuspecting investors via trading strategies employed but facts are facts. CRJ is oversold and apt to bounce back in price and CRJ is undervalued where the market will one day extend a more appropriate valuation. Whereas subsequent trading sessions will tell the story, I challenge others to refute my opinions and with substance as opposed to attacking my character and motives. But I digress.... Having been invested in CRJ/CGR for over 10 years, all one gets on the message boards of Yahoo and Stockhouse is the constant dribble that "management sucks". As I seek to demonstrate, however, that does not mean to suggest one can not make money off the stock price.

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