Noble Iron Inc V.NIR.H

NIR chart pattern clarifying ...

[Francesco1]

To All, We are near the end of this sideways action that we have been seeing lately ... In an earlier post I proposed two scenarios that looked possible based on the chart of NIR. The following were the two possible scenarios; 1) That NIR would rally to the $3.40 area before pulling back again to the $2.80 area before beginning a move to an all time high. 2) That NIR would begin a move down to the recent lows below the $1.80 area. Then we would begin that same move to a new all time high. We have been treading water for quite some time now with no net progress is either direction. The reason is now clear ... We have been charting out what is called a Contracting Triangle pattern. For those that are not into this type of analysis, I will describe the triangle and the charateristics of the triangle to see if it +fits+ the chart of NIR. First, Triangles are nothing more than mechanisms that allow the underlying fundamentals to catch up to the perception (price level) of a security. If you look at the move after that recent high above $3.40, you will see an almost perfect contracting triangle. It consists of a series of lower highs and higher lows, all of which is now centered in the area of $2.50. The move from the $3.40 area until now exibits all the characteristics of triangles. These are as follows; 1) As mentioned, a series of LOWER HIGHS and HIGHER LOWS, all leading to the center of the triangle @2.50. 2) LOW VOLUME for the entire sideways move after that $3.50 high. 3) The sub waves of the triangle always consist of 5 waves. (See #1) These count A-B-C-D-E ... The A wave was the move from the $3.40 high to the low @$1.80. The B wave was the rally from $1.80 to the lower high @ 2.90. The C wave was the move from that lower high @ $2.90 to the higher low @$2.30. The D wave was the move from $2.30 to the lower high @$2.70. The E wave is in progress now, and is the little pullback from $2.70 to the center of the triangle @ $2.50. The point is that the sideways, frustrating and no conviction stock action is coming to an end very soon. We could still go sideways for a little while longer ... this is not a problem as long as we hold the $2.30 area. The one exciting conclusion to this story is that triangles always end on NEWS, and always retrace the distance that the A wave made during the first decline. This is the $3.40 recent high, to the bottom @ $1.80. So, if we take $3.40 and subtract $1.80, we get 1.60. So we have a possible short term move (quick) to the $4.00 area. (1.60 + 2.50 = 4.10) After all this, we must still allow for mother nature, stock manipulation and bad news to affect the triangles outcome. If none of these things take its toll on NIR in the near future, the above scenario will come to pass. However, even though it is remote, we could still see a test of the $1.80 area before a move to a new all time high. But I really don't see it happening. With all of the underlying activity going on with regards to positive fundamentals and the potential for major contracts just around the corner, the triangle scenario fits like a glove ... Francesco