valuations A few assumptions (contingent resources from atrush and shaikan) here but i'll try to put a valuation on gkp and wzr considering the figures from the taqa purchase.
SNM believes that Atrush has 500 million recoverable (contingent). There is no 3rd party verification of these figures from what i see. This latest 'takeover' values snm's share (WI) of the oil at .60cents/barrel at Atrush.
SNM's profit oil using heavier crude numbers is as follows:
80USD(going rate for kurd 'heavier' (25 degree) export oil)- 10% royalty x 12% (when R factor ratio equals 2 or above) x 20% WI
= USD $1.73 per barrel profit produced at Atrush
GKP's profit oil using heavier crude numbers is as follows:
80USD (going rate for kurd 'heavier' (25 degree) export oil) -10% royalty x 9% (when R factor ratio equals 2 or above) x 51% WI
=USD $3.30 per barrel profit at Shaikan
As you can see from the above calculation, gkp's oil (mainly due to WI) is worth double that of SNM's. In this case we can say that the takeover value (.60cents/barrel taken from taqa purchase) is also doubled USD 1.20/barrel). Assuming 5 billion barrels of recoverable resources (contingent) at Shaikan would value the company at USD 6 billion. Most estimates however have shaikan recoverable nearing 3 billion barrels...which values gkp at USD3.6 billion (2.53 pounds/share fd). Interestingly enough, if gkp loses their court case and subsequently 30% of the company, valuation would sit at 1.77 pounds which is where it sits today.
WZR's profit oil using a lower discount to Brent is as follows:
100USD-10% Royalty x 16% Min Profit Oil x 40% Working Interest
USD $5.76 profit per barrel
With this calc you can see that wzr's oil is 3.3X the value of snm's....therefore 3.3 x USD0.60 brings us to the magic number of USD2, which has been used several times by mgmt for valuation purposes. Our current (confirmed, 3rd party) contingent sits at around 171 million barrels. We're sitting on over 100 million in cash which values the assets at 340 million (roughly our magic number 2 mulitplied by our contingent resources, oil only). I'm guessing that K2 may have added at least 50 and possibly 100 million barrels contingent...if Baram opens the field up in the SE, we could easily hit 1 billion contingent at the end of this year.